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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 50

New Orleans Saints 6 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:26) 39-L.Hedley punts 40 yards to CAR 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.93 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP