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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 64

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 39-L.Hedley punts 29 yards to CAR 35, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.53 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 22, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model