Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 72

Carolina Panthers 6 – New Orleans Saints 13

(1:32) 10-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to NO 18, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
61% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 72, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model