4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 18

Carolina Panthers 6 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 4-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.12 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 18, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 28, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model