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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 10

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(:39) 19-B.Grupe 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.78 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 10, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model