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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 45

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 33 yards to LA 12, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 23-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.42 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 45, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP