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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 39

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 4-J.Moody 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.82 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -2.10 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
What Happened
  • 63% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 48, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model