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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 61

Los Angeles Rams 20 – San Francisco 49ers 30

What Actually Happened

(2:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 23-K.Williams left tackle to LA 38 for -1 yards (97-N.Bosa).

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.22 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 61, worth -2.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model