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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 71

Carolina Panthers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(10:56) 10-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to SEA 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 39 for 13 yards (44-J.Jansen).

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.72 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 71, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 29, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model