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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 15

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:48) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.60 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model