4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 19

Seattle Seahawks 9 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(:48) 5-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.29 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 29, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model