Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 13 – Seattle Seahawks 12

(14:04) 10-J.Hekker punts 58 yards to SEA 10, Center-44-J.Jansen. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 24 for 14 yards (57-C.Wooten).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.10 EP
62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 68, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model