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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 21

Seattle Seahawks 12 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(9:49) 5-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.95 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model