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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 74

Seattle Seahawks 29 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(5:56) 4-M.Dickson punts 42 yards to CAR 32, Center-41-C.Stoll. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 32 for no gain (32-Je.Reed).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.02 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model