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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 65

Carolina Panthers 20 – Seattle Seahawks 29

What Actually Happened

(4:52) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at CAR 27 for -8 yards (90-Ja.Reed).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.86 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 65, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 23, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.61 EP