Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 18 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 3

(1:16) 90-A.Barno reported in as eligible. 10-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to SEA 19, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.60 EP
73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 68, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model