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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 33

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(12:02) 10-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is BLOCKED (51-W.Anderson), Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke, RECOVERED by HOU-35-J.Hansen at JAX 41.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.17 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 43, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model