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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 82

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(13:31) 16-T.Zentner punts 45 yards to JAX 37, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew. PENALTY on HOU-20-K.Hollman, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 37.

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.55 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 82, worth -5.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.70 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 40, worth -2.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model