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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 55

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.25 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 55, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model