Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 73

Houston Texans 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

(9:26) 16-T.Zentner punts 41 yards to JAX 32, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 73, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model