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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 30

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:36) 10-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.80 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 30, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model