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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 15

Houston Texans 34 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 15-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.58 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 15, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model