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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 50

Houston Texans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 16-T.Zentner punts 33 yards to JAX 17, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.75 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 50, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.60 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model