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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 5

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 8-B.Maher 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +2.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.07 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 5, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP