Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 64

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 10-B.Robbins punts 33 yards to LA 31, impetus ends at LA 30, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds. PENALTY on CIN-26-T.Anderson, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at LA 31.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.62 EP
65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 64, worth -3.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model