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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 81

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(1:24) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to CIN 30, Center-47-A.Ward. 15-C.Jones to CIN 40 for 10 yards (24-R.Freeman; 97-M.Hoecht).

The Three Options

GO -3.07 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.50 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 81, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 38, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model