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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 19 at the 34

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(:03) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +2.82 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 34, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 44, worth -0.20 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model