4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 77

Los Angeles Rams 9 – Cincinnati Bengals 16

What Actually Happened

(:47) 42-E.Evans punts 58 yards to CIN 19, Center-47-A.Ward. 15-C.Jones ran ob at CIN 28 for 9 yards (24-R.Freeman).

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model