4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 40

Cincinnati Bengals 16 – Los Angeles Rams 9

What Actually Happened

(11:10) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left tackle to LA 37 for 3 yards (99-A.Donald).

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.23 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model