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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 35

Cincinnati Bengals 16 – Los Angeles Rams 9

What Actually Happened

(7:18) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.69 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 35, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 45, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model