4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 70

Los Angeles Rams 9 – Cincinnati Bengals 19

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 42-E.Evans punts 46 yards to CIN 24, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 28, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model