Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 80

Cincinnati Bengals 19 – Los Angeles Rams 9

(3:40) 10-B.Robbins punts 41 yards to LA 39, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 23-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.03 EP
68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 80, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model