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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 65

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(4:32) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to CIN 14, Center-47-A.Ward. 15-C.Jones to CIN 21 for 7 yards (6-T.Tomlinson, 97-M.Hoecht).

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.61 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP