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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 16 at the 30

New England Patriots 3 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 37-C.Ryland 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.89 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 30, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 40, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model