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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 75

New England Patriots 10 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 17-B.Baringer punts 42 yards to NYJ 33, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 33 for no gain (41-B.Schooler).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.33 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 32, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model