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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 29

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 37-C.Ryland 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.15 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 39, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP