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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 68

New England Patriots 13 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(:16) 17-B.Baringer punts 49 yards to NYJ 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson ran ob at NYJ 31 for 12 yards (45-C.Board).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.90 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 68, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 26, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model