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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 68

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(14:24) 5-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to NE 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 81-D.Douglas pushed ob at NE 23 for 8 yards (87-C.Uzomah).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.08 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 68, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 26, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model