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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 45

New England Patriots 13 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 17-B.Baringer punts 32 yards to NYJ 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.66 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.78 EP