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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 39

New England Patriots 15 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(:22) 17-B.Baringer punts 22 yards to NYJ 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +0.92 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 39, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 48, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.18 EP