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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 45

New England Patriots 3 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 17-B.Baringer punts 39 yards to NYJ 6, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-86-P.Brown.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.85 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP