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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 88

New York Giants 3 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(14:22) 6-J.Gillan punts 60 yards to SF 28, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.45 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model