Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 75

New York Giants 3 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(6:21) 6-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to SF 27, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model