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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 57

New York Giants 6 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(12:24) 6-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to SF 8, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 3-R.McCloud to SF 14 for 6 yards (47-C.Brown). PENALTY on SF-35-T.Swilling, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at SF 8.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.78 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model