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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 94

San Francisco 49ers 17 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(10:56) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to NYG 48, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 20-E.Gray. PENALTY on SF-38-S.Jean-Charles, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 48.

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.38 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 94, worth -5.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 52, worth -2.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model