Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 80

New York Giants 12 – San Francisco 49ers 20

(2:22) 6-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to SF 31, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.21 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model