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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 44

San Francisco 49ers 30 – New York Giants 12

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 39 yards to NYG 5, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +0.98 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -1.00 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.17 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP