4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 26

New York Giants 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 9-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.41 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model