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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 54

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:49) 10-B.Mann punts 38 yards to TB 16, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 54, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP