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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 59

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(12:23) 5-J.Camarda punts 48 yards to PHI 11, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-B.Covey to PHI 25 for 14 yards (29-C.Izien).

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.22 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 59, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model